United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point I feel like Rishi might be delaying the election because he's morbidly curious to see just how badly he can tank his own party. And tbh, as someone who has to deal with Tory backbenchers all the time, he has every reason to want to f**k them over.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever Rishi decides to do here, it's not exactly a good look to be waffling over when to call elections for months on end. I guess this is one of the many instances of Tories trying to be clever by half and missing the big picture.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is beyond pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the Brits get to declare their independence from the Tories on July 4th. Took them long enough but better late than never!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Technically it can be done, because Parliament hasn't dissolved yet.

Not yet, but it has been prorogued for a dissolution, the date of which has been set. This is where the political nature of the British Constitution makes theoretical questions very tricky: if something is arguably theoretically possible but is certainly not politically possible, is it actually theoretically possible at all?

So in the absence of a controlling precedent, it would be incumbent on Charles to grant or deny Rishi's request to rescind the dissolution? I imagine he'd have public and expert opinion on his side if he told him to pound sand.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So in the absence of a controlling precedent, it would be incumbent on Charles to grant or deny Rishi's request to rescind the dissolution? I imagine he'd have public and expert opinion on his side if he told him to pound sand.

The monarch's inner circle usually work to avoid them ever being put in that position in the first place. It was made clear to Johnson, when he had lost the party's confidence, that if he tried to call Buckingham Palace to arrange a dissolution, that the Queen would likely be unavoidably busy elsewhere, and unable to talk.

Graham Brady is known to have colluded with government whips and palace officials as part of a larger effort to ensure Brenda wasn't politically exposed by Johnson's desperate bid to cling on.

Al will have a clearer idea, but I imagine that if Sunak picked up the phone to the Palace tomorrow, he'd probably be told that Brian had just left for a brisk walk/departed for Sandringham/was feeling a bit under the weather etc, having been tipped off in advance.

Amazing.

On a first-principles normative political theory basis I have nothing but contempt for these petty institutional shenanigans, but as an enjoyer of Drama I have to admit they're delightful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

Although it’s very much well connected union officials, many of whom have never done a day on the shop floor, rather than ordinary workers.

Still often quite involved in unions though, which is effectively a full time job and not through choice.

Yeah, Michels' iron law of oligarchy remains an unfortunate reality, but if a party is to have an oligarchy it could do worse than to draw it from the ranks of organizations whose bread and butter is still defending workers' interests.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I saw a conversation elsewhere in which a Labour majority of 73 was predicted and one of the participants (who seemed to be pro-Labour or at least anti-Tory) was dismissive that it could be that high. I don't think most people and certainly not most of the media have clocked onto what a bloodbath this might be.

Good, honestly. Don't want voters to get complacent. It's to the interest of both Labour and frankly, civic health, that people think the election is competitive even if it isn't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Telegraph… less so.

...what in God's name is that even supposed to mean

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll say it again - what I find so interesting about the UK elections this year is that Conservatives are rightfully being punished for things. Like, this is how things are supposed to work in politics - conservatives keep messing up, and voters are reacting to that rationally.

It's such a complete difference from the U.S.

The Tories have been in power for 14 years and are only now getting their comeuppance after bullsh*tting their way through three successive elections. If the GOP had managed that the US would be over as a country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

Where is Lord Buckethead running this year?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder if things could possibly have been worse if Truss was still leader.

I have persistently believed that Liz Truss would have dragged my beloved Conservatives to around 26-28% by Other-May Mayday Day. The reason I've never said this out loud is because I normally stick to discussing the American elections.

It's possible the Tories would have done a bit better under Truss, but the thing is that Labour would have done a Lot better. Remember they were polling in the 50s when she was PM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On gaffe watch a Tory councillor has attacked a labour candidate, who is a veteran, for being in France for a D-Day charity event- the Labour candidate who is an ex-para has now raised £2,000.

So Tories seem dead set on making "F**k D-Day" a consistent theme of their campaign huh? Interesting strategy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Conservatives have very much suffered from a belief that during a campaign the polls will always narrow in their favour... it has basically been baked in that they would be able to get the lead down by pure virtue of being the Conservative Party.

This really is a party whose fundamental, core identity is rooted in a sense of entitlement. It would be beautiful to see it come back to bite them in the ass.