India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

Any theories as to why all the polls in India, including the exit polls, were so wrong and overestimated the BJP so much?

Exit polls just seem to be unreliable in India. In 2014/2019 the averages underestimated the NDA by around 50 seats while this time they overestimated by over 70.

[Frodo]

Excellent advice -hopefully he will take it rather than double down on Hindutva which is why voters decided he badly needed to be cut down to size in this election:

India’s Modi urged to set ‘ambitious’ economic agenda after poll humbling
Unemployment and inflation among the biggest challenges facing Modi’s reduced coalition, analysts say.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Excellent advice -hopefully he will take it rather than double down on Hindutva which is why voters decided he badly needed to be cut down to size in this election:

India’s Modi urged to set ‘ambitious’ economic agenda after poll humbling
Unemployment and inflation among the biggest challenges facing Modi’s reduced coalition, analysts say.

The problem is Modi did pass Farm Reforms in this previous term but it let to massive protests that led to those reforms eventually becoming blocked by the Indian Supreme Court and then repealed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Indian_agriculture_acts

These Reforms were definitely needed given and had the endorsement of the IMF, and US state department as well

[Frodo]

Excellent advice -hopefully he will take it rather than double down on Hindutva which is why voters decided he badly needed to be cut down to size in this election:

India’s Modi urged to set ‘ambitious’ economic agenda after poll humbling
Unemployment and inflation among the biggest challenges facing Modi’s reduced coalition, analysts say.

The problem is Modi did pass Farm Reforms in this previous term but it let to massive protests that led to those reforms eventually becoming blocked by the Indian Supreme Court and then repealed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Indian_agriculture_acts

These Reforms were definitely needed given and had the endorsement of the IMF, and US state department as well

Yet opposition parties and a BJP-aligned farmers group claim these reforms were passed in haste and without proper consultation with opposition parties in parliament.  From that very same link:

Various opposition parties alleged that the bills were passed "unconstitutionally" in "complete disregard" of parliamentary norms and are anti-farmer and corporate-friendly.
 The Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS), a farmers organization that is associated with the BJP itself, has demanded that the government send the bills to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture and questioned the government's haste to get the bills passed.

And they seemed to have had good reason to be wary:

The acts have faced protests from farmers in various parts of India alleging that it will hurt their earnings.  The main reasons for opposition is the uncertainty regarding the implementation of the reforms, controversy surrounding the minimum support prices (MSPs) and low bargaining power of the farmers are some of the fears that have led to the opposition to the bills.  Lack of statutory support in the bills for the MSP is a major point of concern, especially for farmers from Punjab and Haryana, where 65% of wheat (2019) is procured at MSP by the Food Corporation of India and state agencies.  The protesters pointed out that the deregulation of the sugar industry in 1998, which paved the way for private establishments, did not result in a significant improvement in farmers' productivity or incomes. A state-led attempt in Bihar to deregulate the APMCs in 2006 has not resulted in an increase in farmers' income or improved infrastructure.

Perhaps another try with these criticisms in mind might result in a better outcome next time around, especially with recent election results forcing Modi to become more of a Prime Minister and less of an unofficial raja. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Excellent advice -hopefully he will take it rather than double down on Hindutva which is why voters decided he badly needed to be cut down to size in this election:

India’s Modi urged to set ‘ambitious’ economic agenda after poll humbling
Unemployment and inflation among the biggest challenges facing Modi’s reduced coalition, analysts say.

The problem is Modi did pass Farm Reforms in this previous term but it let to massive protests that led to those reforms eventually becoming blocked by the Indian Supreme Court and then repealed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Indian_agriculture_acts

These Reforms were definitely needed given and had the endorsement of the IMF, and US state department as well

Yet opposition parties and a BJP-aligned farmers group claim these reforms were passed in haste and without proper consultation with opposition parties in parliament.  From that very same link:

Various opposition parties alleged that the bills were passed "unconstitutionally" in "complete disregard" of parliamentary norms and are anti-farmer and corporate-friendly.
 The Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS), a farmers organization that is associated with the BJP itself, has demanded that the government send the bills to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture and questioned the government's haste to get the bills passed.

And they seemed to have had good reason to be wary:

The acts have faced protests from farmers in various parts of India alleging that it will hurt their earnings.  The main reasons for opposition is the uncertainty regarding the implementation of the reforms, controversy surrounding the minimum support prices (MSPs) and low bargaining power of the farmers are some of the fears that have led to the opposition to the bills.  Lack of statutory support in the bills for the MSP is a major point of concern, especially for farmers from Punjab and Haryana, where 65% of wheat (2019) is procured at MSP by the Food Corporation of India and state agencies.  The protesters pointed out that the deregulation of the sugar industry in 1998, which paved the way for private establishments, did not result in a significant improvement in farmers' productivity or incomes. A state-led attempt in Bihar to deregulate the APMCs in 2006 has not resulted in an increase in farmers' income or improved infrastructure.

Perhaps another try with these criticisms in mind might result in a better outcome next time around, especially with recent election results forcing Modi to become more of a Prime Minister and less of an unofficial raja. 

Maybe a coalition can actually help give legitimacy to such reforms attempts as parliament passing such a bill in a coalition government rather than a majority government probably means there are more amendments made to the bill which address some of the concerns of the people who fear they will be negatively impacted by reform.

Something that also needs to be done is that India needs to definitely improve law and order in general because that is essential to bringing economic progress .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Demands of NDA parties

Seems like that didnt happen at least when it comes to the cabinet

https://twitter.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/1799817552673251477

[Antonio the Sixth]

72 ministers??? lmao, I guess cabinet size in India also follows the cube root rule

[eos]

NDA got 46.73 pc votes in Mahrashtra but only 17/48 seats. INDIA got 43.71 pc but 30/48 seats. Independent 1 seat (supported by VBA, in relatively anti-NDA territory).

2019 to 2024 vote share
BJP - 27.84 to 26.18
SHS - 23.50 to 12.95 (2024, SHS UBT 16.52)
INC - 16.41 to 16.92
NCP - 15.66 to 3.60 (2024, NCP SP 10.27)

Decline for BJP vote share with 3 more seats contested compared to 2019.

Increase in INC vote share despite contesting 7 less seats. SHS UBT vote transferred successfully.

Splitting and taking on NCP into NDA backfired. Their voters stayed loyal to Sharad Pawar and NDA failed to transfer votes to NCP.

SHS did respectably but it’s clear that SHS UBT has around half of core SSH voters, and seem to have benefitted from INC and NCP SP vote transfer and mobilised Maratha votes against BJP due to attempts to break the party.

Uhh the math is wrong.

NDA = BJP + SS + NCP +RSP (1 seat), which is 26.18 + 12.95 + 3.6 + 0.82 = 43.55

INDIA = INC + SS(UBT) + NCP(SP), which is 16.92 + 16.72 (that's the number on the official site) +10.27 = 43.91

You are right, I got SHS and SHS UBT mixed up when adding the NDA pc and forgot RSP.

Hope you dont mind me asking, but which part of India are you from and do you still live in India or no.

Delhi, and I am in India right now. But I don’t live here permanently.

[jaichind]

My final seat-by-seat projection was closer than most (NDA 334 (BJP 287)) but still way off.  I got 70 seats wrong. 

The exit polls which wildly exaggerated BJP performance were fairly helpful for me to get more seats right.   I accepted the exit polls projections of the NDA surge in AP and Odisha and adjusted my projection appropriately.  The exit polls also showed NDA in trouble in the Northeast which also helped me make adjustments that ended up being correct.  I mostly rejected exit poll results in Karnataka Rajasthan, WB, and Haryana and I was right in holding my ground. 

I had a feeling that the NDA was going to fall apart in UP Maharastra and Bihar and if the exit polls showed some trouble there I was going to adjust downward my NDA numbers aggressively in those states.  The exit polls scared me from making more adjustments in those states away from the NDA.  That proved the right decision for Bihar but made me way off in Maharastra and UP.

I will post some election results data when I have a chance.

[jaichind]

Any theories as to why all the polls in India, including the exit polls, were so wrong and overestimated the BJP so much?

Most exit pollster post mortems had the following:

a) Exit polls did not do a good job polling Dalits - hence the big exit poll miss in UP where Dalits voted differently than other states
b) Exit polls did not do a good job polling women voters - hence the big exit poll miss in WB where women votes failed to lean BJP
c) The SHS and NCP party splits in Maharastra made it very hard to poll - hence the big exit poll miss in Maharastra

Some exit polls were also off in Haryana Rajasthan and Karnataka but not all.  The big misses are the three states above.

[jaichind]

Wow INC won/leading both Manipur seats

Yeah, this was a shock.  Outer Manipur going INC was expected. when INC nominated a Naga which allowed INC to split the Naga vote with the BJP-backed NPF while the Kuki vote went to INC in revenge for the Meitei -Kuki ethnic conflict last year.   A third independent Naga candidate further diluted the Naga vote.

That INC won Inner Manipur is the true shock.   One would think that the Meitei-Kuki ethnic conflict would at least consolidate the Meitei vote for the BJP.  It seems the INC candidate, a Meitei of course, was fairly vocal during the Meitei -Kuki riots saying that the military was covertly backing the Kukis.  So the INC out Meitei the BJP.  Before 2017 it was the INC that was the Meitei party in Manipur (the current Meitei BJP CM has an INC background.).  So this is sort of the Meitei vote coming home.  Another Meitei running for RPI(A) seems to also have split the pro-BJP Meitei vote.

[jaichind]

There will be two Khalistanis in elected in Punjab in fact. In Faridkot the son of Indira's assassin, Beant Singh, is well ahead.

Khadoor Shahib winner Amritpal Singh was backed by SAD(A)
The pro-Khalistanis winner in  Faridkot should really be viewed as a SAD(A) rebel.   His grandfather and mother both ran for SAD(A) and won back in the late 1980s and early 1990s due to being related to Indira Gandhi's assassin.  He is pretty much doing the same only he is running without SAD(A) support.

This election is fairly good for various separate radicals of all types.

Two pro-Khalistine candidates won in Punjab (one of them from jail.)  A Kashmir separatist win in Kashmir and beating a former JKNC J&K CM along the way.

Pro-Dravida Nadu independence NTK surged to 8.2% in TN eating into the DMK vote.  DMK is lucky that AIADMK-BJP split or else it would have lost a dozen seats or so to an AIADMK-BJP alliance AND NTK splitting the radical Dravida vote.

[jaichind]

States where I did unusually well with my projections:

First note that getting MP HP Delhi Gujarat Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand correctly or nearly correct is no big deal since it was clear that all of them were going to be BJP sweeps or near sweeps so I do not count them.

Assam:  I got all 14 seats correct
Jharkhand: I got 13 out of 14 seats correct
Karnataka: I got the seat count on the nail (I missed two as I got the seats JD(S) flipped)
Kerala: I got 19 out of 20 correct
Punjab: I got 12 out of 13 correct
Telangana: I got all 17 correct